MLB Picks and Moneyline Predictions for August 26

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Baseball all day long! Let’s get into it!

Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for today’s slate, with plenty of underdogs catching my eye in some great spots on Wednesday, Aug. 26.

Before we dive in, be sure to check out our MLB picks to see where our experts see value!

MLB moneyline picks for August 26

Matchup	Pick
Rays vs Tigers	+105
Cubs vs Diamondbacks	-103
Reds vs Giants	-112
Guardians vs Angels	+124
Pirates vs Padres	-131
Phillies vs Mariners	+114
Red Sox vs Marlins	-137
Rockies vs Nationals	+114
Astros vs Yankees	+114
Royals vs Blue Jays	+134
Brewers vs Mets	+134
Dodgers vs Braves	-131
Rangers vs White Sox	+114
Orioles vs Cardinals	-107
Twins vs Athletics	+119

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-26.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 26

Rays vs Tigers: Rays (+105)

Rays win probability: 48%

Freddy Peralta has been bad this season, but the Tigers have been truly awful offensively over their last 12 games.

We’re getting one of the most efficient lineups in baseball at plus money against a Tigers team owning a .140 ISO, 4.5% barrel rate, and .292 wOBA over the last few weeks. There is zero interest in backing Detroit.

Troy Melton has been solid, but you’re going to need runs, and the Tigers are tough to trust. Plus, Peralta has posted solid underlying metrics on the road, sporting a 3.79 xERA, 7% walk rate, and 7% barrel rate.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (-103)

Diamondbacks win probability: 50%

Arizona left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez has been pure nails over his last five starts, posting a 2.51 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while allowing just a 2.97% barrel rate. Meanwhile, Chicago southpaw Matthew Boyd owns a 4.78 ERA and 5.47 xERA while allowing an 11.43% barrel rate during that stretch.

The Cubs have been on another planet over their last couple of games, but the Diamondbacks have not been that far behind, especially when it comes to run production. However, across both teams’ last 12 games, they each share similar statistics.

After last night’s win, the Diamondbacks should be able to replicate another win over the Cubs.

Reds vs Giants: Giants (-112)

Giants win probability: 51%

Easy fade here, as Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo has been brutal of late. In his most recent three starts, he owns a 7.12 xERA and 1.78 WHIP while allowing nearly 47% hard contact and a 13.33% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

The Reds’ bats have been lifeless for a few weeks, with their strikeout rate hovering around 27% over their last 21 games, making them a very unappealing look.

Guardians vs Angels: Angels (+124)

Angels win probability: 43%

Let’s get a little frisky here…

People will see Joey Cantillo versus Grayson Rodriguez and automatically fire on the Guardians. However, if you look at both pitchers’ recent numbers, they are almost identical. Plus, the Angels’ offense has been doing something the Guardians have not done in over 21 games — barrel the baseball.

The Angels own an 11.2% barrel rate over their last six games. The Guardians own a 2.2% barrel rate over their last six, 3.5% over their last 12, and 4.9% over their last 21.

Trust the Halos.

Pirates vs Padres: Padres (-131)

Padres win probability: 55%

With the way the Padres’ bats have been performing over the last few weeks, and how well Randy Vasquez has been throwing, it is San Diego or nothing here.

Vasquez has not been the sexiest arm in baseball this season, but in his last five starts, he owns a 2.60 ERA, 2.71 xERA, and 0.69 WHIP.

Pay the juice.

Phillies vs Mariners: Mariners (+113)

Mariners win probability: 45%

Leaning on the Mariners as the dog here. They have been great throughout this entire series, especially with the resurgence of “The Big Dumper,” Cal Raleigh, who crushed four straight home runs from Monday night through last night.

Bryan Woo has been nails at home, and the bats have looked great. Taking a chance on the dog feels right.

Red Sox vs Marlins: Red Sox (-137)

Red Sox win probability: 57%

The Red Sox bats have come alive over the last week, as they own a 124 wRC+, .354 wOBA, and .802 OPS. Meanwhile, the Marlins have gone cold, with an 89 wRC+, .297 wOBA, and .107 ISO during that same stretch.

Sonny Gray has been unstoppable for most of the season, and that should continue this evening against a bunch of ice-cold bats.

Rockies vs Nationals: Rockies (+114)

Rockies win probability: 46%

Rockies right-hander Tanner Gordon does not have the most attractive numbers this season, but he certainly does on the road. So far this season away from Coors, Gordon owns a 2.97 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, and is allowing just an 8.65% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

On the other hand, Brad Lord sports a 6.52 ERA and 1.34 WHIP at home.

With both lineups not looking too hot over the last few games, backing the dog here is the plan of attack.

Astros vs Yankees: Astros (+114)

Astros win probability: 45%

The Astros are an interesting look here, mainly due to right-hander Peter Lambert’s underlying metrics.

He’s been brutal over his last five starts, posting a 6.29 ERA, but he owns a 3.18 xERA during that stretch. The 29-year-old starter has done a great job limiting hard-hit balls, so maybe it comes around for him tonight.

Houston’s bats were alive and well last night, and that should roll over into today, especially with this being Elmer Rodriguez’s first start since June 21.

Royals vs Blue Jays: Royals (+134)

Royals win probability: 42%

How could we not back the Royals, while they currently own a 151 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .893 OPS, and .205 ISO over their last six games? The Blue Jays’ bats have been hot too, but not like the Royals.

Plus, Kansas City has Randy Dobnak on the mound, who has a 1.58 ERA on the season and does a great job limiting hard contact and barreled balls.

Paying near $1.50 juice for the Blue Jays in 2026 does not sound like a fun time.

Brewers vs Mets: Mets (+134)

Mets win probability: 41%

A very rare Brewers fade from this writer, but it is hard to look at Dustin May’s numbers and how well the Mets are seeing the ball as of late and want to pay near -150 juice for Milwaukee to secure the win this evening.

Over the Mets’ last six games, they have been generating a barrel rate above 8% and a hard-hit rate above 43%, while posting a 118 wRC+.

Robert Stock has not been too great in his first four starts this season, but he’s done a great job limiting hard-hit balls.

Dodgers vs Braves: Dodgers (-131)

Dodgers win probability: 55%

It’s safe to say we should not be looking to back the Braves until they turn things around.

Sure, they won last night, but they are still 3-7 in their last 10 games. Over their last 21 games, they own an 85 wRC+, .292 wOBA, and .660 OPS, while going 8-13 during that stretch.

Trust Roki Sasaki, who has turned things around over his last five starts.

Rangers vs White Sox: Rangers (+114)

Rangers win probability: 46%

Despite the White Sox scoring 11 runs last night, they still gave up seven in their “get-right game” after being blown out on Monday. It is very concerning that the White Sox have allowed 18 runs in the first two games of this series.

MacKenzie Gore has been solid in his last few starts, and he should be able to hold down the White Sox this evening.

Take the dog here.

Orioles vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-107)

Cardinals win probability: 50%

After a team scores 10+ runs the night before, it’s always extremely difficult to replicate that offensive success. So, with the Orioles putting up 13 runs in their win over the Cardinals last night, the Redbirds are the lean this evening.

Michael McGreevy has been solid in his last three starts, posting a 3.19 ERA while allowing just a 33% hard-hit rate and 3.92% barrel rate. He should be able to hold down the Orioles’ hot bats.

Twins vs Athletics: Athletics (+119)

Athletics win probability: 44%

The dog or nothing here.

The Athletics have the hotter offense at the moment, as they draw Twins southpaw Connor Prielipp, who owns a 9.56 ERA and 1.81 WHIP while allowing a 47.73% hard-hit rate over his last three starts.

On the other side, J.T. Ginn owns a 3.09 xERA and 1.16 WHIP, while allowing just a 1.19% barrel rate over his last five outings.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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