Is It Time to Redefine How We Think of Garrett Wilson Based on His Historically Poor Efficiency? It’s Complicated

Garrett Wilson has emerged as the top WR from the 2022 class, outperforming higher rookie ADP players through three seasons, finishing as WR21, WR25, and WR9, with a notable improvement in performance when catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. Despite leading in PPR, targets, receptions, yards, and expected points, Wilson has the seventh-worst fantasy points over expected (FPOE) of any WR in their first three seasons since 2000, suggesting a reliance on opportunity rather than maximizing production beyond expectations. While FPOE is not highly predictive, there is a pattern where elite fantasy producers maintain sustained double-digit FPOE year after year, indicating a potential for incoming regression.

Full Article