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Garrett Wilson has emerged as the top WR from the 2022 class, outperforming higher rookie ADP players through three seasons, finishing as WR21, WR25, and WR9, with a notable improvement in performance when catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. Despite leading in PPR, targets, receptions, yards, and expected points, Wilson has the seventh-worst fantasy points over expected (FPOE) of any WR in their first three seasons since 2000, suggesting a reliance on opportunity rather than maximizing production beyond expectations. While FPOE is not highly predictive, there is a pattern where elite fantasy producers maintain sustained double-digit FPOE year after year, indicating a potential for incoming regression.
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