All but one NHL team will end the season on a bitter note, as there can be only one Stanley Cup champion. But Saturday, we could have our first playoff elimination of the 2025 playoffs.
The Ottawa Senators are on the brink heading into Saturday’s game. Despite taking the heavily favored Toronto Maple Leafs to overtime twice in a row, the Atlantic Division champs have scored the game winner each time in the extra session. Can the Senators win one in front of the home crowd to extend the series to five games?
Elsewhere in the Atlantic bracket, the Florida Panthers won both of the first two games in the Tampa Bay Lightning’s building. Will this be a shorter series than many expected? And out West, the Minnesota Wild will look to extend their shocking series lead over the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Clash of the Western Titans continues in the Centennial State, as the Colorado Avalanche look to even things up with the Dallas Stars.
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Friday’s games, and the Three Stars of Friday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
Game 3 (FLA leads 2-0) | 1 p.m. ET | TBS
Having served his suspension for performance-enhancing substances, Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad is eligible to return for this game. The well-rounded blueliner skated 23:30 per game during the regular season, scoring three goals and 30 assists in 56 games.
The Panthers have another defenseman who has been delivering this postseason; Nate Schmidt scored a goal in Games 1 and 2, becoming the first defenseman in franchise history with two game-winning goals in a single postseason — and they’re only two games in!
All eyes will be on the status of Aleksander Barkov, who was knocked out of Game 2 via a hit from Brandon Hagel; Hagel was assessed a five-minute major penalty for the play and suspended for Game 3.
Tampa Bay needs its stars and its scoring depth to get rolling to charge back into this series, with just two goals total in two games. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has not been up to his typical, superhuman standards thus far, allowing seven goals on 39 shots (.821 save percentage).
In Stanley Cup playoff history, teams that start 2-0 in a best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time; that number rises to 98% if a team starts 3-0.
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild
Game 4 (MIN leads 2-1) | 4 p.m. ET | TBS
If nothing else, this series has been a unique one from a starting-time perspective; each of the first four games will have had a different scheduled start time once the puck is dropped Saturday — 10 p.m. ET for Game 1, 11 p.m. ET for Game 2, 9 p.m. ET for Game 3 and 4 p.m. ET for this one.
Most observers didn’t believe the Wild were going to win this series. Nor did many predict that Minnesota players would be all over the scoring leaderboard midway through Round 1. Kirill Kaprizov is tied for the playoff scoring lead with Adrian Kempe and Cam Fowler (seven points), and is tied with teammate Matt Boldy for the goal-scoring lead, with four. The current playoff assists leader? Wild blueliner Jared Spurgeon.
This has been an uncharacteristically rough opening round for Adin Hill. He’s allowed 10 goals on 57 shots, generating a .825 save percentage and 3.78 goals-against average. Those rates were .932 and 2.17, respectively, in Hill’s 16 games played during the Knights’ 2023 Stanley Cup run.
While “Playoff” Tomas Hertl has shown up this series — to the tune of two goals and an assist — some of the Knights’ other offensive standbys have been quiet. Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev — who combined for 212 points in the regular season — all have a goose egg thus far.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
Game 4 (TOR leads 3-0) | 7 p.m. ET | TBS
The Maple Leafs have been led by a consistently strong performance of their Core Four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares; the quartet leads Toronto in scoring through three games. Perhaps a narrative is being rewritten before our eyes, after years of playoff disappointment for that group?
One specific area where Toronto has been dominant is the power play; their 55.6% conversion rate is tops in the league this postseason (and makes up,…
